Gold and the Global Economy

As 2025 unfolds, gold continues to command global attention as a safe-haven asset, with analysts and investors alike closely watching its performance amidst economic and political turbulence. Despite its struggle to decisively break above the $2,700-per-ounce resistance, there is no shortage of optimism regarding its future trajectory. Analysts at BMO Capital Markets remain bullish on gold, forecasting an average price of $2,750 an ounce this year, with a potential peak of $2,850 in the summer. Such confidence is anchored in several key factors, including central bank diversification away from the U.S. dollar, rising inflationary pressures, and gold’s historically low correlation with other assets, which makes it an effective hedge against broader market risks.

However, while the macroeconomic forces driving gold are widely discussed, the story of this precious metal is incomplete without examining the dynamics of the physical bullion market. In this context, the Perth Mint—a globally renowned institution and a cornerstone of Australia’s precious metals industry—plays an indispensable role.

The Perth Mint concluded 2024 with mixed results, reflecting both the opportunities and challenges facing the global bullion market. Its gold sales totaled 391,606 ounces for the year, a significant decline compared to the highs of previous years. This downturn aligns with broader trends in the gold market, where elevated prices have tempered demand among some consumer segments. December alone saw gold sales at the Mint drop 45.4% from the previous month and 12.6% compared to December 2023. Such figures underscore the complexity of navigating fluctuating global gold prices, even for an institution as prominent as the Perth Mint.

Yet, the Mint’s silver sales tell a different story, showcasing the resilience of this alternative precious metal. Silver bullion sales reached 9,813,384 ounces in 2024. While this figure represents a decline compared to the record-breaking years of 2021 and 2022, it still highlights strong demand, especially in the final months of the year. The debut of the 2025 Australian Kangaroo bullion series, particularly its silver editions, played a key role in driving December’s performance, which saw a 0.2% monthly increase and a substantial 55.2% year-over-year jump in silver sales.

The enduring appeal of the Perth Mint’s products cannot be overstated. Known for their exceptional quality and iconic designs, the Mint’s coins and bullion bars are not only a favorite among global investors but also a symbol of trust and reliability. Neil Vance, General Manager of Minted Products at the Perth Mint, emphasized this sentiment, pointing out the warm reception that the Kangaroo series consistently receives from collectors and investors worldwide. This blend of quality and reputation positions the Perth Mint as a key player in the global precious metals market, even during periods of uncertainty.

Meanwhile, on the global stage, China remains a pivotal factor in shaping gold demand. The country’s economic landscape in 2025 presents a unique set of challenges and opportunities. With the Chinese yuan continuing to depreciate, a stagnant property market, and underperforming equities, Chinese consumers are increasingly turning to gold as a reliable means of wealth preservation. This trend drove prices to record highs in the first half of 2024, though demand softened in the latter half of the year as prices climbed.

However, Chinese policymakers have expressed concern over the surge in gold demand. The country’s low household consumption and weak private sector growth remain pressing issues, and record gold purchases could exacerbate these challenges. Analysts at BMO Capital Markets caution that tighter capital controls, such as stricter import quotas, could be introduced to curb demand, potentially putting a ceiling on gold’s growth in the region.

Amid these global dynamics, the Perth Mint’s role extends far beyond Australia’s borders. Its contribution to the bullion market is not merely a matter of providing high-quality products; it is also about sustaining confidence in gold and silver as reliable stores of value. As gold continues to navigate a complex interplay of macroeconomic forces, shifting investor sentiment, and evolving geopolitical landscapes, institutions like the Perth Mint remain vital to the stability and growth of the market.

Gold’s appeal in 2025 is further bolstered by the economic policies of major global powers. In the United States, the Trump administration’s focus on tariffs and increased government spending has sparked inflationary pressures, creating a favorable environment for gold. BMO analysts have described Trump’s policies as “inherently stagflationary,” with the combination of tariffs acting as a domestic tax on consumption and rising federal debt adding to long-term economic risks. In this context, gold’s role as an inflation hedge becomes even more pronounced, attracting investors seeking to protect their wealth.

At the same time, rising inflationary pressures are eroding the appeal of risk-free returns on short-term bonds, pushing more investors toward alternative assets like gold. The precious metal’s historically low correlation with other assets, particularly as stock valuations reach record highs, adds to its attractiveness. BMO analysts have noted that speculative bubbles in areas like artificial intelligence could exacerbate economic imbalances, further reinforcing gold’s position as a stable investment.

In summary, gold’s journey in 2025 is one of resilience and adaptation, shaped by a myriad of global forces and market dynamics. The Perth Mint, with its legacy of quality and trust, continues to play a central role in this narrative, bridging the gap between global economic trends and the tangible demand for precious metals. As investors navigate an uncertain future, the Perth Mint stands as a testament to the enduring appeal of gold and silver in safeguarding wealth and sustaining confidence in an unpredictable world.